Carcieri v. Kempthorne a “Petition to Watch”

SCOTUSBlog lists Carcieri v. Kempthorne as a petition to watch for the Feb. 22 conference.

There are some warning signs, notably the amicus brief filed by numerous states in support of Rhode Island’s petition. See Gregory A. Caldiera & John R. Wright, Organized Interests and Agenda Setting in the U.S. Supreme Court, 82 American Political Science Review 1109, 1122 (1988 ) (“[A]micus curiae briefs filed in support of the petition for certiorari increase the estimated probability that the Supreme Court will grant by a magnitude of .5 or .6, depending upon the characteristics of a particular case.”).

As I argued earlier, however, (1) there is no circuit split; and (2) the issue may turn on the particular import of the Rhode Island Indian Claims Settlement Act, meaning that the outcome could have little or no import nationally. Moreover, the United States is in opposition, so these factors may be sufficient to persuade the Court to let this one percolate.

Incidentally, here is the Carcieri reply brief.