Today’s WaPo article on the possibility that President Obama’s judicial appointments to the federal courts of appeal might reshape much of American law raises a few interesting questions, perhaps ones that can be empirically assessed over the course of his administration.

According to the article, 56 percent of the current federal court of appeals judges were appointed by Republican presidents, and Obama could flip that. But the Supreme Court’s current conservative bent is unlikely to change much during his term, even if it stretches two terms.

My hypothesis is that the Roberts Court, assuming more and more appellate court decisions are “liberal,” will grant cert in more and more cases to counteract the trend. The Ninth Circuit, which is still a majority Democrat appointed bench, is the circuit most reversed by the Court right now.

I think there must be a relation to the general conservatism of the lower courts and the lack of cases in which the Roberts Court grants cert. It might only be 10-15 cases a year, but that’s still pretty significant.