It might be useful to recap the various factors that might affect the Supreme Court’s consideration of Carcieri v. Kempthorne and MichGO v. Kempthorne. I’ve been quoted here (ICT) and here (Indianz) — correctly, no problem there — but one thing I wonder might affect MichGO.

What I’ve been saying for a few days now is that the outcome in Carcieri might affect whether or not the Court decides to hear MichGO on the merits, a grant, or whether it decides to remand MichGO in light of Carcieri, a GVR. One thing I had not considered until now is that MichGO has not made some key arguments that were available to it by virtue of the Carcieri case. Carcieri is about whether Section 5 of the Indian Reorganization Act can apply to a tribe not federally recognized by the federal government in 1934. Until its cert petition (and I have not seen the complaint), MichGO never made that argument. The MichGO cert petition’s second question presented is one that was available to them (the Carcieri litigation goes back way before the MichGO litigation) but one that MichGO apparently never made.

So if the Court GVR’s MichGO after a Carcieri reversal on the Section 5 question, it will be allowing MichGO to bootstrap itself onto an argument that it had never made. Frankly, if my facts are right, MichGO has waived its 1934 argument, and should not be the beneficiary of a remand to the D.C. Circuit.

Even if the Court GVR’s the MichGO case, the Gun Lake Band probably will still be able to show that they are eligible under Section 5, depending on how the Court’s majority opinion in Carcieri reads. MichGO, an organization created to delay gaming, likely for the benefit of other gaming and business entities, will continue to be a big winner merely by delaying the opening of yet another casino. And Gun Lake will have been the victim of really, really bad timing.